December Real Estate Review, by Lynn Slaten, Long Realty

CONTRIBUTED BY LYNN SLATEN LONG REALTY | January 14th, 2024

Following is our monthly submission containing recent SaddleBrooke home stats.

The statistics below highlight current key market indicators for SaddleBrooke. This data is based on homes that sold and were for sale during the month of December, 2023.

For December, 2023, there were 22 homes sold, compared to 22 that were sold in November, 2023 (0%.) In December, 2022, there were 18 homes sold (+22%.)

-The median sales price for December, 2023 was $499,000, compared to $581,250 in November, 2023 (-14%). In December, 2022, the median sales price was $497,500 (0%.)

-The average list price to sales price in December, 2023 was 95%, 1% less than November, 2023. In December, 2022, the list price to sales price was 96%.

-The numbers of homes sold year-to-date at the end of December, 2023 was 260, compared to 238 at the end of November, 2023 (+9%). At the end of December, 2022, 315 homes had been sold (-17%.)

-There are currently 85 homes on the market. The median list price is $519,000. Average days on market decreased to 56.

-There are currently 21 homes under contract. Only 5% of those sold over the original asking price.

-There is currently 3.9 months of inventory, which overall represents Sellers’ market. Once again during December, 2023, this inventory is considerably more diverse than previously reported during prior months in 2023 as follows:

Sales From $300K to $400K = Seller’s Market

Sales From $400K to $500K = Seller’s Market

Sales From $500K to $600K = Seller’s Market

Sales From $600K to $800K = Buyer’s Market

Sales in The $1M+ market = Buyer’s Market

Note: A Sellers Market represents less than 6 months of inventory.

A Balanced Market represents 6 to 7 months of inventory.

A Buyers Market represents more than 7 months of inventory.

Buyers Market = More people selling homes than buying

Sellers Market = More people buying homes than selling

Here is info from Dr Lawrence Yun at National Association of Realtors (NAR) on the housing market, and info on the US/AZ/Tucson economy from the Eller Research Team at UofA. It’s good info to know. Some top line observations:

NAR thinks with inflation improving, the FED may do multiple rate cuts in 2024, increasing home sales from 2023. You may have seen…the FED indicated recently they “may” do up to 3 rate cuts next year

We will find that out in 2024 😊. There’s a lot going on and many variables but, it is possible. Mortgage rates are still trending down and reporting now high 6s, something to keep a close eye on. How will buyers and sellers react? We will find out…! There’s a 55% chance US may enter into a mild recession in mid 2024. That also means a 45% chance it will not. No one is forecasting a deep or severe recession next year.
Locally, economists think Tucson and Arizona economies may perform slightly better than US in 2024. Tucson may not see a mild recession even if the US does, but growth could slow.

Overall, feels like folks are pinning 2024 as a transition year. From an inflation state back to a normalizing economy.