Can Ciscomani Save Trump’s Presidency?
REPRINTED FROM THE TUCSON AGENDA JOE FERGUSON REPORTING| September 27th, 2025
The real drama in 2026 is gonna be in Congressional District 6, where Republican U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani is bracing for the toughest race of his career.
Yes, the election is still more than a year away. But already, millions of dollars are pouring in, national names are flying out and Southern Arizona is becoming a battleground.
That’s because this one congressional seat in Arizona could make or break Trump’s second term.
The race for Congressional District 6 — which is represented by Republican Juan Ciscomani and spans southeastern Arizona, including most of the north and east sides of Tucson — began in earnest a few months ago. At the time, with the election more than a year away, we thought it was a kindness not to spend too much time covering what will likely be a very intense contest that will attract national attention.
What’s ahead for us voters in CD6?
Think phalanxes of door-to-door campaigns lining up in neighborhoods every weekend, an onslaught of digital ads and printed fliers and the occasional flyover from Air Force One.
The top two candidates have already raised more than $2 million combined in political contributions, and the year isn’t even over. More on that in a minute.
The Democrats
First thing you need to know is that the race in CD6 will be far more competitive than the recent one in CD7.
The Democratic primary in CD6 is sure to be dramatic. But at the moment, there seems to be a clear frontrunner, and the field is narrowing accordingly.
There are four Democrats still in the race by the Federal Election Commission’s standards.³
Left to right: JoAnna Mendoza, Jonathan Burma, Samantha Severson, Aiden Swallow
The four remaining Democrats who want to challenge Ciscomani are: former FBI whistleblower Jonathan Buma,⁴ former Marine JoAnna Mendoza, higher ed administrator Samantha Severson, and Army veteran Aiden Swallow.
But one candidate stands out.
As of July, Mendoza had raised over $1.25 million in political contributions.
While she’s hardly a household name, Mendoza has won endorsements from Sen. Mark Kelly, benefited from a wave of donations from groups supporting veterans running for Congress, and attracted established donors who remember her run for a statehouse seat in Legislative District 11 in 2020.
As we keep saying, it’s still early. A candidate who can self-fund or knows how to raise millions of dollars, especially with high name recognition, could still enter the race.
But as of today, Mendoza is the easy favorite.
The incumbent
A two-term Republican, Ciscomani has proven popular in GOP circles, defeating former state Rep. Kirsten Engel in both 2022 and 2024.
But Trump’s return to the White House this January has changed Ciscomani’s public profile. He’s the highest-ranking Republican in Southern Arizona and now he’s on the hook for implementing Trump’s agenda. Trump’s “Big, Beautiful Bill,” unpopular executive orders, DEI cuts, DOGE meddling, and high-profile ICE raids have led to weekly protests outside Ciscomani’s office.
Ciscomani has not held a true public town hall in years, preferring tightly controlled meetings in secured locations and the occasional telephone town hall. Yet, to his credit, he does maintain an active calendar if you track his socials. (We’re just never invited to those meetings.)
It’s easy to see how high the stakes will be in every race as Democrats try to take control of the House, which would allow them to put the brakes on most of Trump’s legislative agenda.
If you care about healthcare costs, unpredictable tariffs, and other recent executive orders, then you’ll want to keep an eye on the race in CD6.
The district
CD6 (and its predecessor before redistricting) has always been a politically competitive area.
It’s Democrat Gabby Giffords’ old district, and Republican Martha McSally’s, too. Typically, the party not in the White House gains an advantage in midterm elections, so this year’s election is especially important.
Democrats are seeking to ride another Blue Wave in 2026, and Ciscomani is on their shortlist of Republicans to defeat.
The district leans Republican, but not by much: 36% of voters are registered Republicans, 33% independents, and 30% Democrats.
Already, the district has hosted rallies from Sen. Bernie Sanders, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, signaling a tough fight ahead for the two-term Republican. Another group has been holding town halls in his district featuring local elected Democrats, with a life-sized cardboard cutout of Ciscomani “standing” nearby.
But the district is not a monolith. Liberals in Bisbee live alongside conservative ranchers in Cochise County, with a healthy libertarian streak throughout the area.
And ultimately, who represents southeastern Arizona after the next election will come down to turnout, and who can win over the narrow slice of voters who haven’t already made up their minds.
