Trump will win Arizona, More Predictions

SBINSIDER NEWS\ANALYSIS |November 3rd, 2024

If the early ballot returns are predictive, Donald Trump will win Arizona.

Will Trump win the Presidency? That matter may not be settled for a long length of time after the election. Harkening back to 2000, when it took the intervention of the SCOTUS to end the vote count in Florida and Bush became President. Unless the vote is overwhelming in the states that will tip the electoral college, the lawsuits will fly, requiring a delay of the certification. Even then, Congressional Democrats will do everything they can to delay\obstruct any official certification.

Kari Lake, who has benefitted enormously from the endorsement by Trump may win a Senate seat, mainly because the infrequent voters, those who rarely vote such as only in the Presidential year, will darken her oval because of Trump’s coattails. If she does, it will be by the slimiest of margins as evidenced below:

From Data Orbital website:

Republicans currently hold an advantage in Arizona’s early voting returns, with certain voting efficacy levels showing stronger Republican engagement. This advantage is especially evident among low-propensity voters—those who are less consistent in past election cycles (0/4 and 1/4 efficacy). Here’s a breakdown of the 2024 outstanding ballots by efficacy level, illustrating which segments could still drive turnout in the days ahead:

0/4 Voters: Republicans show a slightly stronger return rate among these less consistent voters, with 51.5% of their ballots outstanding compared to 57.4% for Democrats.

1/4 Voters: The gap widens here, with Republicans at a 43.5% outstanding rate, while Democrats hold 53.3% of their ballots unreturned. This level reflects a 10% difference, highlighting that Republicans are successfully mobilizing “Trump year voters”.

2/4 Voters: Republicans maintain their lead in outstanding ballots, with only 36.4% of ballots outstanding, while Democrats hold 42.9% unreturned.

3/4 Voters: Among those who participate in most elections, Republicans continue to have a slight edge, with 34.3% of ballots outstanding compared to 39.3% for Democrats. This group, while generally more engaged, reflects a 5% difference favoring Republicans in their return rates.

4/4 Voters: Among the most consistent voters, both parties show high return rates, with Republicans at 20.3% outstanding and Democrats close behind at 20.1%.

Juan Ciscomani, who is the CD6 GOP Congressman representing SaddleBrooke, has a stiff challenge by a mediocre candidate, Kirsten Engel, will also likely squeak by. Ciscomani’s main problem as a candidate, is of trying to stay just barely to the right of the middle and it may cost him votes from those voters who prefer a candidate who is sharply defined, while Engel is proudly an arch-liberal. Playing that middle game such as “the most bi-partisan member” advertising signals to voters that you can never predict where he will come down on any issue. An example is Ron Johnson, Senator from swing state Wisconsin, has been re-elected as a reliably conservative Republican several times as everyone knows exactly where he stands. The casual voter appreciates his consistency more than waffling.

But, the other factor going for Juan is he is much better looking than Engel and that sways about 2% of the voters.

Congressman Juan Ciscomani

Ross Teeple will be the next Sheriff from Pinal County and serve as such for as long as he chooses. Pinal will greatly benefit for his leadership.

Propositions 140, 139

The two most consequential propositions on the voter ballot this year are 139 which make abortion on-demand legal and 140 which would give Arizona jungle primaries and ranked-choice voting.

Proportion 139 will likely pass. Not because most Arizonans are far-left on abortion rights, rather it will pass because independent voters (30%) no longer want this issue to be in the public square and 90% of Democrats compare abortion to be on par with how conservatives view 2nd Amendment gun rights sacrosanct.

The Democratic death cult will win and as it stands now, over 1 million abortions a year will continue as the same time Democrats say we need new immigrants because we have low birth rates.