Pinal County Economy in 2025?

Pinal County Economy in 2025, by Doug Cardell Ph.D.
In 2025, Pinal County is projected to continue the economic growth and development of the past fifteen years or so. It continues to be an increasingly attractive destination for businesses and residents.
Pinal County’s population continues to grow rapidly, with a 23.5% increase since 2010. The current population is 503,441, a 3.97% increase from the 2023 population of 484,239. This steady growth is expected to continue, with projections indicating that the county’s population will reach approximately 520,000 in 2025 and 587,821 by 2030.
Of course, this influx of new residents will increase demand for housing, services, and infrastructure. As a result, the employment outlook in 2025 is positive, with a likely 4-4.5% job growth rate. Sectors likely to exceed the average employment growth rate include manufacturing, hospitality and leisure, finance, and construction, in that order.
Pinal County’s strategic location between major metropolitan areas is a significant advantage. Pinal County has a current unemployment rate of 4.2%, which is not likely to increase in 2025. The labor force has expanded by about 35,000 in the past six years, a trend that is expected to continue or even accelerate. The current boom in economic activity will continue, led by manufacturing expansion, which will further the surge in industrial development, with more major companies setting up operations. Prime candidates include companies looking to improve logistics and distribution by taking advantage of the county’s strategic location.
The county’s growth of renewable energy projects is expected to contribute to economic diversification and job creation. The county’s construction industry will grow faster, surpassing the projected state average of 3.3% in 2025. The proposed 680-acre business park in Maricopa will attract 18,000 to 36,000 jobs over time, which will, in turn, attract even more new businesses.
In 2023, Pinal County produced $14.3 billion in current-dollar total GDP, ranking 3rd in the state and accounting for 2.7% of Arizona’s total GDP
The compound annual growth rate for Pinal County’s real GDP from 2013 to 2023 was 4.0%, outpacing the state’s rate of 3.5%. This trend suggests continued strong GDP growth for 2025. Pinal County’s per capita personal income (PCPI) was $49,829 in 2023, showing a 6.3% increase from 2022
The compound annual growth rate of PCPI from 2013 to 2023 was 6%, higher than the state and national rates of 5.4% and 4.6%, respectively. This trend indicates that residents’ incomes will continue to grow in 2025. This PCPI growth will drive increased consumer spending and local business growth.
While the outlook is very positive, several factors could impact Pinal County’s economic projections for 2025. As the population grows, ensuring affordable housing options may become challenging, which could, in turn, affect the county’s ability to attract and retain workers.
Since the county’s northwest area is still experiencing severe drought and the southeast section is experiencing moderate drought, managing water resources will be crucial for sustaining growth, particularly in sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. In addition, continued transportation and utilities infrastructure investment will be necessary to support the projected growth.
While manufacturing and construction are strong growth drivers, it’s crucial to diversify the economy further. This strategy could provide more stability and resilience, ensuring the county’s economic growth is not overly reliant on a limited number of sectors. Accomplishing this requires ensuring the local workforce has the skills needed for emerging industries. A skilled workforce is not just important; it’s crucial for sustained economic growth. Pursuing strategic planning and implementation to address these concerns will ensure the county remains competitive and can adapt to the economy’s changing needs.
In conclusion, the economic projections for our county in 2025 are optimistic, with expected growth in population, employment, and key industries. The county’s strategic location and ongoing development projects position it well for continued economic expansion. However, managing this growth sustainably and addressing potential challenges will be key to ensuring that our economic growth contributes to a better way of life for all of us.