Biden Out, Harris or Open Convention? Should Biden Step Down?
VIA SBINSIDER ANALYSIS| July 21st, 2024
In the past 30 days, we have seen a presidential debate, an assassination attempt, the GOP convention and President Biden reversing his oft-stated position that he would not drop out.
For the first time since 1956 when Adlai Stevenson the Democrat nominee asked the delegates to pick his VP, the Democrats will likely have an open convention that could rival the 1968 convention (also in Chicago) for drama.
Biden has endorsed Harris from his COVID sickbed and plans to speak to the nation later this week, but he cannot tell his delegates for whom they should vote. However, judging from past Democrat campaigns, the likeliest outcome is that Harris will be the eventual nominee. She has access to many resources including the Biden-Harris war chest and the Democrats are much better are squashing dissent within their own party loyalists. Gavin Newsom of CA would like to be President but knows that he has a better shot in 2028 as it will be an open election on both sides.
Meanwhile, Trump is in a very strong position with a united party, monetary support and the major issues trending his way.
Harris VP Pick?
Assuming Democrat’s follow their usual pattern, Harris will be looking for a Vice President. The names that rise immediately are Andy Beshear from Kentucky who won the Governor’s job in a decidedly Republican state. Others are Governor Gretchen Whitmer who likely brings Michigan with her, Governor Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania. Perhaps there is a another pick out there but this is one of the most interesting political times in the history of the country.
Should Biden Stay On as President Now?
With Biden admitting his fate was sealed as a candidate, the same reasons that he is withdrawing are there, on whether or not he can continue the day-to-day job of President. If he stays in, he helps whomever the Democrats pick as their candidate as that person can spend full-time running for office. But even Biden’s closest aides say he is fully functional for about 6 hours a day and the rest of the world is not on that schedule. If he were to step aside, and Harris is the nominee, she would get the huge benefit of being the incumbent and all the trappings of the White House.
The calls started immediately from the Republicans for Biden to step aside. The only recent precedent is 1968 when LBJ announced in March that he would no longer be a candidate for re-election. LBJ dropped out because the stress of the Vietnam war was too much and had dominated his tenure despite his accomplishments on Civil Rights, the creation of Medicare and several other programs now accepted (albeit expensive) as proper roles for the Federal Government.
As Donald Trump likes to say “we’ll see”.
