Third Way Polling Looks Dire for the GOP 2026
NEWS\OPINION by DOUGLAS WOLF, Publisher and Editor | December 28th, 2025
The following is from a Politico column on recent polling. All polls are suspect but the trends are clear: While the economic data is trending toward lower costs, especially true for the most nefarious driver of all costs, energy, the average citizen is still reeling from a 20% increase in the past 5 years and wages are slowly catching up to the new price levels. This trend happened in Reagan’s first term. Prices had skyrocketed under Carter and it took until almost the end of Reagan’s 2nd term to reach parity. Trump, based on conditions today, will lose the House and the country will be witness to a myriad of impeachments, which will likely go nowhere in the Senate where 67 Senators votes are needed to remove a President.
Here is the column with some edits:
Third Way, the center-left think tank, is releasing its latest slate of polling today capturing the mood after the first year of President Donald Trump’s second term — and making the case for the kind of messaging it believes Democrats need to deploy to break through.
The poll’s main takeaway? You guessed it: It’s still the economy, stupid. (Circa 1992, James Carville)
The numbers: Of the 2,000 registered voters surveyed in the poll, shared exclusively with Playbook, 84 percent say they’re experiencing high inflation, 60 percent believe the economy isn’t growing and 66 percent think unemployment is increasing. The survey finds Republicans and Democrats tied at 38 percent on which party is most trusted to handle the economy. Democrats are up by 11 points on handling cost-of-living concerns, up 6 points on energy costs and tariffs, up 20 points on health care … and the list continues.
“Democrats really never dominated on trust on the economy, what we’ve been able to do is fight it to a draw in periods that have been very good for us electorally,” Matt Bennett, Third Way’s EVP of public affairs, told Playbook. “What we need to do is at least keep it close, and I think that’s where we are.”
Among the most intriguing points is the issue that broke through the most with voters: food assistance. Following the government shutdown when millions were facing a lapse in food stamps through SNAP, coupled with concerns over grocery prices, food ranked as the most salient issue for voters among the 14 that Third Way tested.
Editor’s Note: Americans see billions going to Ukraine and Congress fighting over 22 billion for failed Obamacare subsidies.
Putting it all together: A hyper-focus on the cost of groceries combined with a health care message could be the double whammy that Democratic candidates ride to victories in the midterms, Third Way argues. It all aligns with the word of the moment: affordability.
If you’re already tired of hearing it, tough luck. The year-in-review stories and big-picture looks at 2025 that are already rolling out will all no doubt tab the economy as one of the year’s biggest throughlines. Third Way’s data is just the latest in a growing pool of polls telling a similar story — there are charts on charts on charts (compiled helpfully by WaPo and CNBC) illustrating concerns over inflation and the cooling labor market. And as NYT’s Lisa Lerer and Jonah Smith laid out in this must-read, the use of the word “affordability” exploded in the second half of this year.
“We’re starting to get some things right,” Bennett told Playbook. “I think that the fact that Democrats were able to hang together around the shutdown, keep the focus on health care, really hammer affordability in the ’25 off-year races — all of that’s very good news. But there is a lot of work left to be done.”
Naturally, the answers to some of the party’s bigger problems remain elusive — with no clear leader, factional divides ever-present the Hill and a potentially prickly primary season not too far ahead. This is all compounded by the fact that the DNC has opted against releasing its 2024 autopsy — a decision that has drawn considerable pushback from within the party, while Chair Ken Martin argues that it could serve as a negative “distraction.”
Editor’s note: The DNC is keeping the report undercover as it would hugely embarrass Biden for not stepping aside before the 2024 cycle and Harris‘ pathetic attempt at being a Presidential candidate.
The to-be-improved: Third Way’s polling notably illustrates the party’s biggest weaknesses as clearly as it does the emerging strengths. Despite some souring public opinions on Trump, Republicans hold a higher favorability rating: 42 percent compared to Democrats’ 40 percent. Republicans are also running away with the trust numbers on border and national security with 30- and 17-point margins, respectively. That trend plays out on immigration and crime, as well. Democrats need to shore up support in these areas to flip more voters, Third Way says.
There’s also the reality that defining the party’s rallying cry some months before the midterms creates plenty of time for the GOP to pack its own punch in response. While Democrats welcome Trump calling affordability a “hoax,” as he has done on multiple occasions recently, the White House seems intent on pushing him in a different direction. They’re touting his tax cuts and promising relief in early 2026, as WaPo’s Theodoric Meyer and Riley Beggin write. NEC Director Kevin Hassett teased a big housing proposal to come from the administration next year as well, per Fox News.
One thing is clear: The affordability message isn’t going anywhere in 2026. And Democrats may find a renewed momentum as the cost of health care becomes even more important. Another milestone moment looms on the horizon as the Affordable Care Act subsidies expire in less than a week.
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